To say that the political state of play has changed significantly since President Joe Biden bowed out and Vice President Kamala Harris locked up the nomination at light speed is more than an understatement. The question now is whether Donald Trump understands just how much the race has shifted and why. 

While many have discussed the idea that Democrats were convinced that Biden would lose the election coming off the June presidential debate, the seeds of a Biden defeat were planted long before — in fact, in the earliest days of his presidency. 

To understand his political slide, it’s important to remember the context of Biden’s 2020 victory — largely the result of winning independents by 13 points. In that election, according to exit polls, 51 percent of independents had a favorable image of him, while 45 percent had an unfavorable image. Not great but at least a small majority. 

But Biden decided to take a hard left turn to appease the Democratic base rather than govern from the center. After two years of liberal policies, his standing among independents collapsed. 

When Democrats lost the House in the 2022 election, Biden’s favorable-unfavorable among independents, according to the exit polls, had dropped to 37-60 percent. His majority coalition had fallen apart. 

From that point on, that metric continued to deteriorate, and Biden quickly caught up to Trump’s unfavorable image. By the beginning of 2024, this created what would be a decisive group of voters: those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. This group accounts for about 20 percent of the electorate and 40 percent of independents. 

The obvious question that comes to mind is this: How does a voter who dislikes both candidates decide between the two? While some argue they just won’t vote, these dual-negative voters ended up the key to Trump’s 2016 victory, when 18 percent had an unfavorable view of both Clinton and Trump. But Trump won them decisively by 17 points, 47-30 percent. 

In contrast, neither Biden nor Trump in 2024 seemed able to gain a clear advantage with these voters, and there was a huge number of undecided. The transition to Harris as the Democratic candidate impacted that equilibrium. Her favorable-unfavorable, while still bad, was better than Biden’s. In the July Winning the Issues survey, we found her favorable-unfavorable at 46-50 percent, while Biden was at 41-57. Trump was at 42-57 percent. 

While half of the country still had an unfavorable view of Harris, hers was still 7 points lower than Biden’s, and that is why we’ve seen such a structural change in the race over the past three weeks.

Here’s the conundrum facing Trump. In the July Winning the Issues survey, 19 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, but only 13 percent had an unfavorable view of Harris and Trump. Critically, of those voters who viewed both Biden and Trump unfavorably, Harris was viewed negatively by 60 percent of them. 

That is still a huge number, but the challenge for the Trump campaign is the reality that 40 percent of these dual-negative voters have a favorable or neutral view of Harris. Clearly, she has picked up a portion of those voters, and that is where her current movement has come from. 

For Trump, this is now a different race. Overall, his unfavorables are higher than hers, and his favorables are lower. This holds true for independents as well. But he has one clear advantage: The top issue is the economy, with inflation at the top of that concern. 

In the July Winning the Issues survey, 41 percent of the electorate said these two were their most important issues. When the electorate was asked which party they had more confidence in to handle the economy, Republicans led by 10 points (49-39 percent), and on inflation, Republicans led by 11 points (49-38 percent). 

Only 39 percent of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 55 percent disapprove. Also, a majority of voters believe that inflation is getting worse. 

However, for Republicans, translating these views on the economy and inflation into votes has been, remarkably, a huge challenge. The key reason there was no “red wave” in the 2022 election was this inability, reflected by the party’s weak performance among independents. After winning them for 10 consecutive elections when a Democrat was in the White House, Republicans lost this group by 2 points. 

In the 2022 exit polls, independents identified inflation as their top issue, and 79 percent of independents thought the economy was “not so good” or poor. Republicans had a clear advantage, as independents preferred Republicans to handle the issue of inflation by an 11-point margin, 52-41. But among the 41 percent of independents who said the economy was “not so good,” they voted for the Democratic candidate by a 29-point margin, 62-33 percent. 

While Republicans had an 11-point advantage on the top issue with independents, they lost them by 2 points, a swing of 13 points. This was a missed opportunity for Republicans, and indicates that independents needed to hear a more substantive economic message from Republicans than simply “fire the Democrats.” The key question for both Trump and other Republican candidates is whether they and their campaigns learned that critical lesson from the 2022 election.

The growing demand from many Republicans for Trump to focus on policy is a positive development. Simply pointing out how bad (or to the left) Biden and Harris have been clearly isn’t working. Trump and congressional Republicans must lay out solutions to get the economy back on track. 

In fact, Harris just gave Trump and Republicans a gift this week. In her first clear economic policy statement since her nomination, Harris adopted Trump’s innovative proposal to end taxes on tips. But Trump took exactly the wrong tack. Instead of welcoming her support for his idea and expressing his hope to bring her on board with other Trump policies, he attacked her for “stealing” his idea and made it about her character. 

If Trump isn’t smarter about his responses and getting his focus on policy not personal attacks, he will have a long road ahead. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.