In 2024, younger voters could be a crucial part of the Democratic coalition. But it’s unclear how many voters under 30 years old will turn out and what Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ margin will be among them.

The uncertainty is justified. 

Early this year, younger voters clearly were unhappy with Democrats, in part because of their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and President Joe Biden himself. More recently, polls show younger voters increasingly excited about Harris, whom they strongly prefer over former President Donald Trump in recent ballot tests.

Still, it’s two months until the election, and younger voters (age 18 to 29) are likely to be crucial in deciding the presidential race and the fight for Congress.

Younger voters vs. seniors

For years Democrats promised that younger Americans were becoming more politically engaged and would turn out in larger margins. 

In 2008, for example, the Pew Research Center noted a shift among younger voters was developing. As Tom Rosentiel wrote, “Young voters are more diverse racially and ethnically than older voters and more secular in their religious orientation. These characteristics, as well as the climate in which they have come of age politically, incline them not only toward Democratic Party affiliation but also toward greater support of activist government, greater opposition to the war in Iraq, less social conservatism, and a greater willingness to describe themselves as liberal politically.”

That hasn’t always happened, in part because that shift has been offset by other shifts — for example, the shift of working-class whites without a college degree from the Democratic Party to the GOP.

Turnout, turnout

Part of the problem is that younger Americans are not always as engaged in politics and elections as they might be.

In the 2006 and 2010 midterms, 18- to 29-year-olds constituted only 12 percent of all voters, according to national exit polling. In the next two midterms, in 2014 and 2018, they constituted 13 percent.  In the most recent midterm election, in 2022, younger voters made up only 12 percent of the electorate.

These numbers pale in comparison to non-presidential year turnout among seniors — voters aged 65 and older. They accounted for 26 percent in 2018 and 28 percent in 2022.

Of course, presidential years bring out more voters, including more younger Americans. 

In 2020, voters 18 to 29 were 17 percent of all voters, while voters 65 and older constituted 22 percent.

In 2012 and again in 2016, younger voters accounted for 19 percent of all voters, according to CNN and the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. At the same time, seniors accounted for only 16 percent in each of those two elections.

Of course, it’s not only important how many young people vote. It’s equally important whom they vote for.

It is quite possible that younger voters who turn out could deliver between 60 percent and 65 percent to Harris. That would be significant, since in his first presidential run in 2008 Barack Obama won 2 out of 3 voters under the age of 30.

Have things changed?

There are reasons to believe that Americans 18 to 29 are more engaged now and could constitute a larger part of the overall electorate in November.

Harris would be the first Black women elected president if she wins in November, and her candidacy seems to be energizing younger voters, much the same way that Obama’s candidacy did in 2008.

Trump’s nomination also could bring younger voters to the polls (for Democrats) — in part because many of them find the 78-year old’s language, style and policy agenda repulsive. 

Harris’ campaign is also taking advantage of the multiple new platforms and techniques that could engage younger voters.

For example, TikTok offers presidential candidates a new way to reach younger, tech-savvy voters, and “influencers” offer new strategies to engage voters under 30 years of age who otherwise might not get information about candidates, their supporters and the issues.

Indeed, social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram and Reddit are a primary source of news and information for younger voters, and they should benefit Harris more than Trump, even though both parties are using the new platforms.

New issues also offer the Democrats additional opportunities to attract younger voters, particularly younger women.

The Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision overturning the federal right to an abortion gives women new reasons to get involved politically, as does the GOP’s convoluted positioning on IVF (in vitro fertilization). Younger voters, particularly women, also took note of GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance’s comments on “childless cat ladies” — sentiments not likely to mobilize younger women for Republican candidates across the country.

The bottom line

Young people seem more invested in the 2024 election, making them a crucial part of the Democratic coalition later this year. 

But the question remains: Will voters under 30 actually turn out to vote? They are more active in presidential years, and Harris seems to have a special appeal to them. 

If they do vote in unusually large numbers in the fall and demonstrate a more progressive bent, they could produce an electorate that will generate some surprisingly strong results for Harris and her party — something reminiscent of 2008 and Obama.