If there is one thing on which liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats, journalists and political partisans all agree, it’s that the 2024 presidential race is too close to call.

Vice President Kamala Harris may have a slight advantage nationally and in a couple of competitive states, but polling in at least half a dozen swing states – including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin – shows that the presidential race between Harris and former president Donald Trump is separated by only a percentage point or two.

As the New York Times wrote on Sept. 8 and updated three days later, “The national results are in line with polls in the seven battleground states that will decide the presidential election, where Ms. Harris is tied with Mr. Trump or holds slim leads, according to New York Times polling averages. Taken together, they show a tight race that remains either candidate’s to win or lose.”

But if you are something of a gambler and everyone you know believes the 2024 presidential contest is and will remain extremely close, you probably should put a few dollars on the possibility that November will produce a clear and convincing win for Harris.

That assessment isn’t based on the most recent survey numbers but on the current dynamics of the race and the advantage of taking a contrarian position.

Harris has plenty of momentum going into the fall election. She has become a strong speaker at her rallies, and she should have a considerable financial advantage over the next couple of months.

Her coalition, which includes some high-profile Republicans and conservatives, stretches from former Vice President Dick Cheney and conservative intellectual Bill Kristol on the right to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the left.

Harris clobbered Trump in their first (and possibly only) debate, and another debate would be extremely risky for Trump, who can’t afford another bad performance.

Harris wasn’t merely good on one or two topics during the debate. She successfully deflected Trump’s attacks and baited him so that he spent more time defending himself than defining his opponent. Harris was particularly effective on abortion/reproductive rights and foreign policy/national security.

The Democratic ticket is drawing huge crowds in the key states where Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, are campaigning, and it’s quite possible that pollsters are underestimating the turnout that the Democrats will generate in the fall.

Pollsters model turnout

Remember, polls are based on turnout assumptions, and if Harris generates stronger turnout among younger voters, voters of color, former Republicans, and college-educated whites, she could outperform the polling.

Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, on the other hand, continue to make faux pas almost daily.

The former president’s debate performance was ridiculous, and his insistence that he “won” the debate only makes him look more foolish.

While most of his supporters are so strongly committed to him that his gaffes won’t cause defections, his misstatements and conspiracy theories make it more difficult for him to grow his support among swing voters and the undecided.

And Trump is likely to find himself in a more difficult position as Election Day approaches. A possible “government shutdown” after the end of this month would likely put Republicans — including Trump — on defense once again.

None of this means that Harris is a sure winner in November. Trump continues to receive strong support from older white men, populist conservatives, and white evangelicals, and the country seems as divided as ever. That makes it difficult for any nominee to build up a huge advantage in the presidential contest.

Harris in better position than Biden

But Harris clearly has put herself in a much better position than President Joe Biden was in before he left the race, and Trump appears far weaker than he was during the summer.

Harris’s age, confidence, and charisma give her assets that Biden doesn’t have, and her debate performance demonstrated that she has skills that Trump either never had or now has lost.

Polls demonstrate that the Harris-Trump race remains close. But they also indicate that Harris has strong appeal from traditional Democratic constituencies.

So, if you believe momentum is important, candidate skills matter, and polls tell only part of the story (even when they are correct), you might want to keep an eye on the trajectory of the presidential contest rather than the most recent poll.

And those factors are a reason why the possibility of a Harris victory is greater than you may think and the polls now suggest.