ANALYSIS — The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.”

The article went on to report that a poll conducted Oct. 12-18 and released by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership showed incumbent Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia and GOP challenger state Sen. Jen Kiggans tied at 45 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided.

The numbers were accompanied by some reporting and analysis about what voters care about, the importance of turnout and the usual disclaimers, including the all-important “it could go either way” assessment.

I had a different reaction. My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. 

That’s because at this point in the election cycle the incumbent’s percentage in the head-to-head ballot test has always been one of the most important indicators to me.

Other numbers matter too, of course, including President Joe Biden’s job approval in the district, party enthusiasm and the demographic profile of voters who are still undecided at this relatively late date. The national generic ballot, on the other hand, seems largely irrelevant when looking at Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.

In a campaign’s final weeks, I always want to know where the incumbent stands because that tells me a lot about the strength of the midterm dynamic — which favors the party not in the White House — and about the ability of a particular incumbent to swim against the current. 

If by the middle of October an incumbent has convinced only 45 percent of constituents that he or she deserves reelection, that incumbent has serious problems. Why are so many constituents hesitant to give him or her another term? What is the source of the resistance, and is there anything the incumbent can do to minimize it?

On the other hand, when an incumbent leads 49 percent to 47 percent, the challenger needs to win nearly all undecided voters or flip voters who have already made up their minds to vote to reelect the incumbent. Those things can happen, of course — I’ve certainly seen them occur — but the burden is much more on the challenger.

In a 45-45 dead heat, the burden is on the incumbent, who should have inherent advantages that benefit him or her.

I’ve long believed that late deciders — to the extent that they vote at all — pay less attention to issues and ideology and more attention to mood. Strongly partisan and ideological voters make up their minds early about who they will support, but late deciders don’t have the same vote cues that partisans do. 

Late deciders may be torn between the nominees, influenced more by events that occur during the final week of the campaign, or motivated by their general sense that things are getting better or worse for the country and for themselves.

This year, the mood is decidedly against the party of the incumbent president. Yes, Democrats have tried to make the election a choice between Biden and former President Donald Trump rather than merely a referendum on Biden, and in some places they have succeeded. 

And Democratic enthusiasm spiked after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overruled Roe v. Wade and its guarantee of nationwide abortion access, giving Democrats more reasons to hope that the upcoming midterms won’t be like previous ones. 

But presidential job performance remains an important motivator of midterm electoral behavior, and Biden’s weak approval (41.7 percent according to fivethirtyeight.com’s poll averaging and 45 percent according to NBC News) continues to give Democratic strategists reason to worry as the midterms approach.

Candidate quality does matter, of course, but it may well be more important in statewide contests (which tend to be better funded and generate more earned media) than in individual House contests, where party is a strong voting cue. 

So, can Luria win, or does Kiggans have an advantage in a race that one survey finds a dead heat? Is the contest really a true toss-up?

I don’t watch races the way I once did, so I happily defer to the folks at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, who continue to follow House races as closely as I once did. Both rate Virginia’s 2nd as a toss-up (along with 30 or 35 other districts), and that’s good enough for me. 

Just remember to keep your eye on where incumbents are in late ballot tests. That information should prove useful as Election Day approaches.