Remember all that talk of a partisan “red wave” that was going to produce House gains of two or three dozen seats (or more) for the GOP — because that’s what happens during midterms when the economy is poor, one party “controls” both houses of Congress and the White House, and the president is not popular?

Never mind.

Remember all that chatter the past few days about how terrible Democratic messaging has been, and about how abortion had faded dramatically as an issue? Remember all those people who said that Democrats screwed up by spending time talking about preserving democracy? 

Fuhgeddaboudit.

Oh, and remember all those GOP polls that showed Democrats in terrible shape in the campaign’s final days? You must remember all the talk about Republican momentum in Senate contests in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and even Washington state.

As it turns out, you can forget about all of that, too. The voters decide what is important and who wins.

To longtime political observers, President Joe Biden’s poor job approval numbers — which sat in the low to mid-40s (44 percent in the 2022 national exit poll) — looked like an invitation for a Republican wave across the board, in House races, Senate contests and crucial gubernatorial elections. 

After all, Barack Obama’s and Bill Clinton’s job approvals were in the upper 40s when their first midterms rolled around, and Democrats lost 63 House seats in 2010 and 52 seats in 1994.

Ronald Reagan’s first midterm loss, in 1982, was less dramatic — he lost only 26 seats — but that was in part because Republicans entered the 1982 elections holding only 192 seats. Reagan’s job approval was in the low 40s, according to Gallup.

Reagan, Clinton and Obama all won reelection because circumstances changed, as did the electorate’s views of the three presidents. Reagan ended up winning a second term by carrying 49 states and defeating Democrat Walter Mondale by 18 points in a massive landslide.

Could Biden have the same sort of recovery, depending on the economy and how Republicans perform in the next Congress?

The biggest loser

The biggest loser in the midterms appears to be former President Donald Trump, who played a significant role in selecting GOP nominees in many races. (Some of them won, of course, but stronger Republican nominees surely would have meant larger Republican gains.)

Trump, who for the past few days has been teasing an announcement that he will again run for president in 2024, now must worry about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won reelection handily and looks like a potential 2024 GOP contender.

The underwhelming Republican performance on Tuesday could easily produce a divide within the GOP over Trump’s future role in the party. It’s not difficult to imagine Trump going after DeSantis the way he went after another Florida governor, Jeb Bush, in 2015 and early 2016.

Of course, DeSantis is young (44), and he could defer to Trump this time, figuring he will have other opportunities to run for the White House. But Trump’s defeat in 2020 and his impact in this week’s midterms could easily encourage other Republicans to challenge Trump for the 2024 nomination.

That doesn’t mean that Trump is now vulnerable within the GOP. But the nastier Trump gets, the more he will alienate moderate and swing voters.

Is Biden a winner or a loser?

While Trump looks like a loser and DeSantis a winner, where is Biden after the Democrats’ midterm performance?

The incumbent president didn’t suffer typical losses, but it is far from obvious that Biden will be strengthened by the midterm results.

He’s old and getting older, and many grassroots Democrats are looking for a new face and a new generation of leadership. Yes, Biden defeated Trump once, so he could do it again. But few people except Biden’s most loyal supporters would be comfortable with a Biden-Trump rematch.

And while Democrats outperformed expectations, Biden is still likely to have to deal with a Republican House and/or a Republican Senate.

So, the obvious problem for Democrats is that even if the economy avoids a recession next year and starts to improve by early 2024, many Americans will have already concluded that it is time to move on past Biden and, possibly, his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris, of course, is another problem, given her claim to be the next Democrat in line and the criticism that she has taken recently.

The bottom line

This year’s midterm results say little about what will happen in 2024. The public mood could be very different that year, and the quality of the nominees will be important. 

But for now, Democrats earned the opportunity to brag a little about their performance during the midterms given all the criticism the party, its candidates and its leaders absorbed.